Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Micron is gaining share in high-profit market segments like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), high-capacity DIMMs, and LP5 DRAM for data centers, with HBM mix increasing every quarter and expected to become a multibillion-dollar business opportunity in fiscal '25.
- Micron is shifting its product mix towards leading-edge technologies like DDR5 and LP5, reducing exposure to lower-margin products like DDR4, which enhances its profitability prospects.
- Micron's industry-leading manufacturing capabilities and yield performance, including smart manufacturing and AI utilization, enable efficient production of advanced memory technologies, supporting growth and competitiveness.
- Micron's expected volume growth for fiscal '25 is second-half weighted, indicating that any weakness in demand or delays in the second half could negatively impact financial performance.
- The increasing trade ratios for higher-stack HBM products (e.g., moving from 8-high to 12-high and HBM4) may lead to higher costs, potentially pressuring Micron's margins if not offset by pricing.
- Micron's revenue growth relies on strong AI server demand, particularly for high-capacity DRAM; any slowdown in AI server growth could adversely affect financial results.
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HBM Ramp and Demand
Q: Is improved HBM supply driving better DRAM shipments?
A: Yes, Micron is seeing strong yields in HBM, achieving several hundred million dollars in revenue in fiscal Q4, with gross margins higher than other DRAM products. This strong HBM supply contributes to an improved DRAM shipment outlook, supporting a multibillion-dollar business opportunity in fiscal '25. -
HBM Competitive Position
Q: Can competitors enter the HBM market and impact Micron?
A: While all three major DRAM suppliers are expected to supply HBM eventually, Micron aims to have the best HBM with superior performance, features, and 20% lower power consumption in its 12-high product compared to an 8-high product from the nearest competitor. High demand and limited supply ramp in '25 support Micron's confidence in maintaining a strong market position. -
AI Server Growth
Q: What are assumptions for server unit growth in fiscal '25?
A: Micron expects modest growth in general-purpose servers and strong growth in AI servers this year and next. High-capacity 128GB DIMMs are used predominantly in AI servers for training and inferencing, and this trend is expected to continue. -
CapEx Focus on HBM
Q: How is CapEx being allocated in fiscal '25?
A: CapEx will be up meaningfully in fiscal '25, with $3.5 billion in Q1 and an expected full-year estimate of mid-30s percent of revenue. The overwhelming majority is to support HBM CapEx, facility construction, back-end, and R&D, while maintaining discipline on wafer fab equipment spending. -
Inventory Expectations
Q: Will fiscal Q4 be the peak inventory level?
A: Inventory days are expected to improve through fiscal '25, particularly in the second half as volumes increase. While dollar inventory levels may not change significantly due to business growth, days of inventory outstanding should see improvement. -
China Capacity Impact
Q: Is China capacity causing any disruption?
A: China supply exists but is limited to lower-performance products like DDR4 and LP4, mainly for China-headquartered customers. Micron's focus on high-profit segments like HBM, high-capacity DIMMs, and data center SSDs reduces exposure to China-related market pressures over time. -
Visibility and Customer Contracts
Q: What visibility does Micron have into customer demand?
A: Micron has long-term agreements for standard DRAM and NAND providing quarterly visibility, and for HBM, agreements have pricing concluded through calendar '24 and '25. Deep R&D engagements with customers on multiyear roadmaps bolster confidence in leadership for future HBM products. -
Operating Margin Outlook
Q: Will operating margins expand throughout '25?
A: Micron expects a healthy supply-demand balance and a constructive environment to improve profitability through fiscal '25. Volumes are anticipated to be second-half weighted, supported by increasing mix of HBM, high-capacity DIMMs, and data center SSDs. -
HBM Yield and Manufacturing
Q: How do Micron's HBM yields compare to competitors?
A: Micron has made significant investments in smart manufacturing and AI, leading to faster and more predictable yield ramps. While not commenting on competitors, Micron feels strong about capabilities in both front-end and back-end yields, supporting the HBM opportunity ahead. -
Seasonality and Demand
Q: How will seasonality affect fiscal '25?
A: Strong data center demand is expected in the first half of fiscal '25, with AI-related server demand continuing throughout the year. Second-half volumes are anticipated to be higher, with benefits from higher-margin data center products, but Q2 may see typical seasonal weakness.
Research analysts covering MICRON TECHNOLOGY.